Responding to a major damages claim in an oil dispute

Osborne Partners was engaged by a consortium of oil companies facing a claim brought by a Central Asian state. The government alleged the companies had failed to develop an oil field to its maximum capacity, leading to a headline dispute in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Osborne Partners was retained to respond on a majority portion of the claim in a case heard under UNCITRAL arbitration rules and one of the largest disputes of its kind.

Expert:

Chris Osborne

James Searby

Montek Mayal

Charles Larminie

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Investigate

The first task was to review the claimant’s expert report in detail. That meant dissecting their legal framework, models and assumptions, as well as tracing how inputs from other experts – such as infrastructure and processing specialists – flowed into the damages assessment. To mount an effective response, we needed to both understand the damages model itself and the underlying technical reports on which it relied. This required working closely with third-party experts, including a major consulting firm and a petroleum engineer, to test the factual foundations of the claimant’s case.

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Evaluate

Once the claimant’s framework was clear, the team developed a structured economic response. That involved untangling competing assumptions, reconciling differences between financial theory and industry practice and addressing issues such as oil price forecasting and the economics of field development over decades-long horizons. With a case of this scale, even small shifts in assumptions could have vast financial implications. Our role was to evaluate how the claimant’s assumptions translated into damages, and build a reasoned alternative aligned with both economic principles and the client’s commercial reality.

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Communicate

Given the scale and complexity, clarity of presentation was critical. We distilled months of modelling and review into a structured report and presentation outline, designed to make flaws in the claimant’s case clear and accessible. The team comprised six consultants, with senior leadership involved throughout: James Searby led the day-to-day analysis, Chris Osborne acted as the named expert, and Montek Mayal was available to advise on probabilistic modelling.

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Service

Disputes

We provide expert analysis and testimony in high-value litigation and arbitration, covering everything from expropriation and shareholder disputes to complex competition and regulatory cases.

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Expert

Chris Osborne

Managing Director

Our Managing Director, Chris, brings decades of experience leading expert analysis in high-value disputes and regulatory matters worldwide.

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Expert

James Searby

Affiliate Partner

James is an Affiliate Partner who specialises in quantum assessment in high-value disputes, with extensive testifying experience across global jurisdictions.

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Expert

Montek Mayal

Partner

Montek is Partner and Practice Head for Asia and the Middle East. He is recognised as a Global Elite Thought Leader in arbitration expert witness by Lexology and GAR.

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