Valuing a funded claim for fair reporting
Investigate
Our work began with a deep understanding of the claim itself. The case concerned an expropriation, with damages linked to contractual rights and shareholdings. We analysed the company’s history, the legal theory underpinning the claimed losses and the range of procedural paths the litigation might follow, including successive appeals.
Timing was critical: each procedural stage carried the potential to add years to the process, affecting the present value of any award. To ground our assumptions, we analysed past judgments, appeal data and judicial patterns to develop a realistic view of the litigation’s likely trajectory.
Evaluate
Building on that foundation, we constructed a probability tree to map the case’s potential outcomes. At each stage – trial, appeal, Supreme Court review – we applied probability weightings informed by the evidence and expert judgment.
We also tested four different methods for quantifying damages, and modelled the sensitivity of results to different interest rate assumptions. These elements were brought together in a Monte Carlo simulation, generating a realistic distribution of potential outcomes and a fair value estimate the client could rely on.
Communicate
The analysis was not left in a black-box model. The engagement was led end-to-end by two senior partners – Chris Osborne and Dora Grunwald – ensuring a high level of partner involvement throughout. We provided regular weekly updates and delivered a final presentation to the client’s senior leadership team, clearly setting out the valuation and the reasoning behind it. The findings provided a clear valuation, backed by transparent reasoning and data strong enough to stand up to external scrutiny.
The result was a fair value assessment that met the client’s accounting requirements and was accepted in full by their auditors. Delivered in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the project demonstrated our ability to navigate complexity, uncertainty and large volumes of data – and to turn them into clear, defensible insights that decision-makers can trust.

Valuation
We deliver independent, robust business valuations that stand up to scrutiny in both contentious and non-contentious contexts.
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