Understanding India: Episode 10

Tariffs, Trade and India’s Economic Future

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In this episode, Avanti Bhati, Partner at Osborne Partners, is joined by Shekhar Tomar, Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (ISB), to examine the far-reaching implications of the latest U.S. tariff measures on India.

With effective tariff rates now at 50%, half of which stems from U.S. retaliation for India’s oil imports from Russia, this conversation unpacks the delicate balance between geopolitics, trade policy, and India’s economic future.

The discussion addresses pressing questions at the heart of India’s trade and policy agenda:

• Does the additional 25% tariff represent a tactical move to pressure India, or a broader shift toward U.S. protectionism?

• What realistic options does India have for diversifying its energy imports without triggering domestic inflation?

• By when will the tariffs’ negative effects be felt in vulnerable sectors like textiles, gems, and leather, and how significant will job losses be?

• What levers can the Indian government use in the short term (subsidies, credit lines, GST tweaks?) to cushion exporters, and are these tools politically or fiscally constrained?

• In the event that no deal is reached and tariffs persist through 2026, how might India’s export mix evolve—shrinking, shifting to services, or rerouting supply chains?

• Looking ahead to India’s 2047 vision, what key reforms should be introduced today to safeguard growth and competitiveness?

Rich in both economic insight and geopolitical analysis, this episode sheds light on how India can navigate a challenging trade environment while laying the groundwork for long-term resilience.

The views and opinions expressed in this episode are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of Osborne Partners. Osborne Partners bares no liability or responsibility to any contents, statements, claims or representations made in this episode.
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